- The British hospitality sector, which has been one of the hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, has received for the first time a potential timeline for reopening. During his May 10 speech Boris Johnson announced that, provided certain conditions have been met, some sections of the hospitality industry could recommence trading in July.
- According to the official guidance released by the Government on May 11, pubs and restaurants and other so-called "higher-risk businesses and public places" must remain closed until the beginning of July.
- The 60-page document Our Plan To Rebuild: The UK Government's Covid-19 recovery strategy makes clear that hospitality venues must remain closed until July 4 at the earliest.
- Restaurants, pubs and cafes, which some industry leaders fear could be among the last to reopen due to the difficulties of social distancing, are among those in step three of the new plans.
- The reopening is contingent on five main factors being met: NHS capacity, a falling rate of daily deaths, a rate of infection below 1, sufficient PPE, and no risk of a second spike overwhelming the NHS. Business owners will have noted that the reopening date coincides with the end of the furlough scheme.
The hospitality industry has been hit harder than most. Pubs have resorted to throwing away beer; restaurants, if they haven’t completely shut up shop, are offering takeaway to help maintain a stream of income.
The reduction in footfall has had a knock-on effect on suppliers, wholesalers, producers and farmers, while staff up and down the country have been furloughed – many won’t get their jobs back. Experts predict a high proportion of restaurants won’t make it through to the other side of the Covid-19 crisis.
There’s good reason why pubs and restaurants have temporarily boarded up. A Chinese study is looking into how a customer at a Guangzhou restaurant in January spread the disease to nine other people, all of whom were on their table or neighbouring ones. Enclosed environments packed with people are about as unsafe as it gets.
Thus, when Michael Gove told Andrew Marr last month that restaurants and pubs could be among the “last to reopen”, while it was a blow to chefs, restaurateurs, publicans and landlords, many told the Telegraph it was “understandable”.
It is also understandable that they want to open as soon as they can – but when could this realistically happen?
When will pubs and restaurants reopen?
Pubs and restaurants and other so-called "higher-risk businesses and public places" must remain closed until the beginning of July at the earliest, the latest official guidance says.
The ruling will spark alarm among in a sector which were closed by order of the Government on March 20. There were reports on Monday that almost half of pubs fear they will need to close if lockdown is not lifted until July.
The latest guidance published by the Government makes clear that pubs and restaurants must not open during the first stage of the exit of the lockdown, which runs until July 4.
The guidance says that while "all workers who cannot work from home should travel to work if their workplace is open ... the only exceptions to this are those workplaces such as hospitality and nonessential retail which during this first step the Government is requiring to remain closed".
Food service providers, pubs and hotels will be able to open from July 4 along with hairdressers, churches and leisure facilities like cinemas.
The advice makes clear that this last group must "meet the Covid-19 Secure guidelines" and if they cannot do this then they might not be allowed to reopen.
The document says: "Some venues which are, by design, crowded and where it may prove difficult to enact distancing may still not be able to re-open safely at this point, or may be able to open safely only in part.
"Nevertheless the Government will wish to open as many businesses and public places as the data and information at the time allows."
The guidance adds that to engineer the fastest possible re-opening pubs, restaurants and other higher risk venues will only be opened in a phased way with "pilot re-openings to test their ability to adopt the new Covid-19 Secure guidelines".
It says: "The Government will also monitor carefully the effects of reopening other similar establishments elsewhere in the world, as this happens."
We have already seen some fast food spots reopen. Last month, Pret, Burger King and KFC all opened some branches for takeaway and delivery, with a limit on customers, Perspex screens to protect staff, shortened menus and stricter cleanliness rules. But that’s a far cry from the dine-in experience many people crave. On April 29, McDonald's said it was running reopening trials, to see how an end to lockdown will play out.
Stuart Proctor is the COO of the Stafford Collection, which runs restaurants Norma, The Game Bird, Northcote and the Stafford Hotel. “We’re working towards October as a worst-case scenario, the best case is July, I think. But who knows – if you know the lottery numbers for Saturday, let me know,” he told the Telegraph.
What does this mean for Britain's pubs?
"The Government needs to ensure that further ongoing support is provided for Britain's pubs, and the brewers that supply them, so that when the time comes for reopening our sector is best prepared to do so in a safe and sustainable way," says Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA).
As reported in the Telegraph earlier this month, the BBPA insists that pubs will need to be given three weeks' notice before they can reopen. This will give brewers time to restart operations and provide notice to furloughed staff.
On April 29, a government adviser suggested Britons could be limited to two or three drinks when pubs reopen, in order to ensure punters don't stay in pubs for too long.
What will our post-lockdown restaurants look like?
Whether it’s July, August or October, one thing is certain: a restaurant post-coronavirus won’t look like a restaurant pre-coronavirus – at least temporarily, and possibly until a vaccine is ready. On April 27, the Guardian reported that an economist advising the Government said pubs, shops and restaurants could reopen “as long as there was mandatory physical distancing and fines for those abusing the rules.”
Fewer tables; limits on customer numbers; shortened opening hours; more local produce; restricted menus; mandatory gloves and masks (when not eating); temperature checks on the door; barriers between diners. All have been mooted, and, for better or worse, all and more are possible measures.
As David Moore of Pied à Terre admits, some measures “feel a bit 1984”, and he hopes there will be a certain amount of self-governance. “I get the whole thing about face masks, though I hate the idea [of staff wearing them], but if you’re asymptomatic, and you’ve got a mask on, you’re much less likely to pass it on.”
For Jonathan Downey, founder of Hospitality Union, however, some of the measures are “nonsense”. “We go out for fun, not fuel. For fast-casual operators, it’s about fuel rather than an evening out, they’ll operate fine on social distancing rules. But if you’re a sit-down-dine-in venue, it’s not going to happen.”
Downey adds: “at the very earliest it will take a year, and up to 18 months, before things are back to normal,” before suggesting “we will lose a big chunk of our sector.”
Everyone the Telegraph spoke to agreed customer numbers will be heavily down for some time, as is currently reported in China. With millions of people in precarious positions financially – whether furloughed or unemployed – there may be less of an appetite for expensive meals out.
Additionally, with everyone cooking more as a result of lockdown, people may have found a greater love for home cooking. On the other hand, there could be pent-up hunger to visit a beloved restaurant.
What is happening in other countries?
China, where the virus emerged, was the first to announce a lockdown. Now that it has been lifted, restaurants across the country have reopened. However, things haven’t returned to normal, with safety precautions such as temperature checks, increased space between tables and barriers between diners in place. Some spots have closed permanently, while trade is markedly down; a sign of what’s to come here, perhaps.
Many European countries have started relax lockdown measures, either effective now or beginning in the next few weeks. These include Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain and France. But, almost across the board, restaurants, pubs and bars are yet to be given the green light – another clue as to how the re-opening of the British economy may unfold.
Only two countries, Italy and the Czech Republic, have put a date on when restaurants can reopen – in Italy, the tentative date is June 1; the mooted Czech date is May 25, two weeks earlier than an original planned date. Face masks will be mandatory.
In Italy, which had the first major outbreak in Europe, Fipe, a bar and restaurant lobby group, has predicted that 50,000 bars and restaurants could be gone for good. Despite the country being famous for its thriving hospitality sector, a junior health minister told the BBC it was “impossible” to envisage bars and restaurants reopening “until the discovery of a vaccine.”
In Germany, which is considered to have dealt relatively well with the pandemic, Bavaria has cancelled its annual Oktoberfest, which normally attracts six million people. In next-door France, reports suggested bars, cafes and restaurants could reopen from June 15 – a month after the lockdown is to be relaxed in schools and workplaces. However, social distancing measures would have to be in place, and many French bistros, which tend to be small, would be crippled by running at half capacity.
In the USA some states have seen protests against the lockdown, and in certain areas it is being lifted. Restaurants reopened in Georgia on April 27, though with three dozen safety guidelines. President Donald Trump has said “it's just too soon” when asked about Georgia's plans. Alabama and Florida are both expected to reopen their states' economies, though epidemiologists say this will lead to a significant rise in infections.
New Zealand is generally regarded to have dealt with the pandemic well. On April 27, prime minister Jacinda Arden announced that 75 per cent of the economy is due to reopen, with 400,000 people returning to work. However, restaurants and cafes are still limited to takeaways.
How many British pubs and restaurants could close down?
It is impossible to say exactly how many restaurants will close forever, but one thing is for certain: a considerable amount will. On April 29, industry magazine The Caterer reported that restaurant investors have claimed 40 per cent of UK restaurants might not make it to the other side.
In the UK, Downey thinks a nine-month rent holiday (launched as the #NationalTimeOut movement), is crucial to keeping restaurants, pubs, cafes and bars open. “More than half are thinking 'we won't be able to open if we don't get nine months rent free',” Downey warns.
